The 2023 MLS Playoffs have begun with the tale of two fixtures. The New York Red Bulls, who snagged the last Wild Card spot thanks to a 94th minute penalty kick on the last day of the season, dominated Charlotte FC at home 5-2. Meanwhile, a scoreless 90 minutes between Sporting Kansas City and the San Jose Earthquakes ended with a dramatic penalty shootout. SKC won the shootout by a score of 4-2.
The arrival of the United States’s annual premium professional soccer tournament marks the beginning of the end of a historic season for the relatively young league.
Inter Miami signed all-time greats Lionel Messi, Sergio Busquets, and Jordi Alba, won the League’s Cup, and still missed the playoffs. Apple TV signed the league to the biggest exclusive sports streaming deal of all time. St. Louis City FC won first seed in the Western Conference in their debut season. The “Soccer in the USA” campaign has officially kicked off!
To think that this next month and a half is supposed to be the most dramatic part of a season so dense with stories certainly brings excitement for some, fear for others, and indifference for most. This is what I’m thinking about as we embark on the journey to find out who will be crowned champion of the 28th season of the MLS.
Philly: Make or Break?
The Philadelphia Union have established themselves a regular force not just within the Eastern Conference or the MLS but across the continent. Winners of the Eastern Conference two of the past four years, semi-finalists of the CONCACAF Champions League two of the last three, runners up in the best MLS Cup Final in history, the Union have put together a more than respectable MLS resume since their debut in 2010.
For the last few seasons, it has felt inspiring to see their rise. Philadelphia has a strong, genuine, passionate fan base and the club has repaid them with a team that has become not just a consistent competitor but a benchmark for other clubs across the league.
But this year feels a little bit different. The Union finished the regular season fourth in the Eastern Conference, their lowest since 2018. They only won one of their last eight games of the season, the last of which was a 2-1 loss to upcoming first round opponent New England Revolution.
It feels like the control the Union held at the top of the east for these past few years has slipped not insignificantly. This slip is forcing the hand of the front office, who are already preparing to make tough decisions to try and get back to their winning ways and add some hardware to the cabinet.
Earlier this month a report from The Athletic revealed that the Union would not be renewing the contracts of Alejandro Bedoya and Kai Wagner. Bedoya, 35, has been captain of the side since 2017, and recent health struggles and diminished minutes have hinted toward the end of his time in Philly. Meanwhile, Wagner, 26, is seemingly hitting his stride as a left back, and has been flirting with attention from Europe for over a year.
Olivier Mbaizo and Julián Carranza are also likely out the door, and with such a daunting rebuild ahead, focus in the playoffs may not be at an all time high. The mighty Sons of Ben will have to help push the team through the playoffs if they want one more shot at a trophy with this squad.
Dark Horse: Houston Dynamo
It’s hard to call a team that wins the Lamar Hunt US Open Cup a dark horse in anything they do, but it’s a testament to how serious contenders they are based on their regular season ranking. Their fourth place finish in the west notches a solid one round of guaranteed home field advantage.
The turnaround was sudden but mighty. Houston won the MLS Cup in their first two seasons of existence in 2006 and 2007. After a few runners up finishes in ‘11 and ‘12, the Dynamo only made the playoffs twice over the last 10 seasons. In the first few months of the season, it seemed like they were destined to a familiar fate.
However, Houston quietly built a squad that has found a way to string together consistent success in a very important time of the year. The Dynamo only lost one of their last 12 regular season games, scoring 17 goals in their last five home games.
It took time for their pieces to gel. But once the formula started proving itself, the results followed suit.
Veteran Mexican international Héctor Herrera has proven to be an invaluable leader deep in Houston’s midfield. Corey Baird, a relatively young forward, has carried on building his reputation as a potent goalscorer wherever he is. DC United and MLS legend Ben Olsen has made his return to the sideline with Houston, turning them into a cohesive unit capable of winning.
They extinguished a red hot, but admittedly Messi-less, Inter Miami to take home the Open Cup. The momentum the Dynamo has carried since is convincing enough to believe they’ve truly evolved.
St. Louis City SC Deserves More Hype
Number one in the Western Conference over the dynasties that are LAFC and Seattle Sounders, most goals scored and highest goal differential in the Western Conference, second in the Western Conference when playing at home. Could you ask for a better inaugural season?
If the MLS are as dead set on committing to the model of continuing to add expansion teams and figure it out later, which seems the case, St. Louis City SC could not be a more perfect case study. They have already proven themselves to be a competitive force across the league and have cultivated a passionate fan base that shares a true connection with the team and its performance on the field.
The blend of top level talent, MLS experience, and fresh, hungry prospects created a recipe for success that manifested into one of the best debut seasons in league history. Yet, there’s a feeling that the St. Louis hype train doesn’t carry nearly as much for behind it as Atlanta, LAFC, or even Austin did.
Atlanta and LAFC at least each made the playoffs, but neither made it close to winning the conference nor advanced past the first round. St. Louis can compare to both in terms of sports market, and the city has had a major sport-sized hole in it since the Rams in the NFL relocated back to LA.
St. Louis City SC has more than proven that they are capable of lifting the trophy in December. To do that in their inaugural season which has been filled with headlines regarding everything but them is incredibly rare, and deserves much more hype.
Playoff Format Changes Again?!
Since Inter Messi FC just missed out on the playoffs this year, one of the bigger stories heading into the knockout stages is the format of the tournament itself. St. Louis City FC became the 29th team in the MLS this season, widely changing the makeup of the league.
This year’s playoff format is completely new, and has raised concerns among fans, coaches, and players alike.
The format is as follows:
The top seven teams in each conference automatically qualify for the Round of 16. The eighth and ninth best teams from each conference play each other for the last two spots in that first knockout round (last night’s Wild Card matches). This round will be played as a best-of-three, with the higher seeded team hosting the first and third (if necessary) games. If matches in this round end in a draw, the teams go straight to penalties.
From the quarterfinals on, the rounds will be single game elimination, with the higher seed hosting. If matches in this round end in a draw, they will be followed by the classic two-15 minute halves of extra time and penalties after if needed.
The format is crazy for all involved. The disparity in starting dates between teams is completely disruptive to any cohesive rhythm the league wanted to maintain from last season’s playoffs. Four teams started their journeys last night, meanwhile Columbus and Atlanta won’t start until November 1.
Players are going to be operating on very different cycles of match fitness, and could extend further as teams may have to play all three games just to get through the first round. Stacking so many games in the playoffs leads to an unpredictable schedule. You would think that having games every day of the week would be a good thing, and it aligns with the general American approach to soccer of getting a lot of eyes on a lot of soccer so maybe it is.
But the lack of rhythm of when games are happening makes it hard to look forward to. The most recognizable soccer competitions in the world hold trademarks over certain days of the week. European domestic leagues on Saturdays and Sundays, UEFA Champions League on Tuesdays and Wednesdays. There’s consistency, and rhythm, and ultimately the balance of those two builds a passion-based anticipation that lifts their importance to fans.
But for now, it’s a half-improvised mess that feels like it didn’t have much forethought involved. The one silver lining is that the multi-game first round does bring back the memories of early 2010s two-legged conference semifinals, which provided several moments of crucial MLS lore.
MLS, Share the Love
A major theme throughout this post has been the campaigning for and performance of recent expansion teams. The MLS and the USL, the next biggest professional soccer association in the United States that hosts the equivalent of divisions two through five, do not get along very well. Their lack of collaboration dampens the hopes of integrating a smooth promotion and relegation system, and the MLS’s only other options to grow is to expand.
A few of these expansion teams initially started as USL teams, like Orlando City FC. Most of them are reignited NASL teams from the past, rebranded to assimilate to the collective modern MLS image.
The investment into expansion has so far paid off well, with a lot of these teams finding success fairly early on in their existence. However, the pattern is getting repetitive, and there doesn’t seem to be a clear vision as to what is going to happen in the future.
Will they stop at 30 with San Diego in 2025? Will they go until they can make their own two league promotion and relegation system? Either way, social stock is down, and something needs to happen to reignite interest in the league (outside of Messi).
There is a way they can do this while healing a major wound the league has suffered from for years by reappropriating time and energy into covering founding teams.
The history of the MLS began with DC United and LA Galaxy establishing dynasties with clear identities in the beginning seasons. However, as teams continue to be added, the founding teams have struggled to hold the same influence they held before. The narratives have settled into mediocrity and the MLS is leaving them in the dust for the new and shiny.
These are clubs that are responsible for helping create the foundation of support for the league, without which the MLS would be nowhere near where it is today. Even just leaning into the story of legacy clubs against new guys on the block could divert enough attention to re-engage these historic fan bases.
