Arsenal drew with fellow contenders Manchester City 2-2 on Sunday afternoon, a result both sides have become all too familiar with in this fixture.
The result caps off a tough road week in the early stages of the season. The Gunners beat their North London rivals Tottenham Hotspur 1-0 last Sunday, and held on for a scoreless draw with Atalanta in the Champions League on Thursday.
The week serves as a litmus test for Arsenal, who are coming into this season with a slightly different air about them. They entered the campaign with as high expectations as recent fans can remember: win a major trophy.
The project under manager Mikel Arteta has grown out of its infancy into a fully developed, nearly dominant force within the Premier League. The North London club finished as runners-up in the last two PL title races behind powerhouse Manchester City.
The foundation has been set, and by this point it’s about fine tuning the squad. The Gunners have done exactly that so far, with a busy summer transfer window that was almost perfect.
But what can we realistically expect from a club that has a reputation for falling short?
Realistic Expectations
This season, a trophy is expected.
The PL trophy is the most likely to be added to the cabinet, though Arteta and his squad will definitely eye up Champions League run given the chaos that may come with the new format. Arsenal has played at as high a level as any club over the past few years, and have shown the capability of lifting themselves back into the upper echelon of European clubs.
That being said, Arsenal aren’t straight favorites for either competition, which sees them caught in an awkward limbo of status. The collection of quality brings a high level of expectation for each individual performance, but there is still a lack of belief in their ability to see it through.
It won’t be until they actually win one of these trophies that Arsenal will start actually being favorites to win either of them.
All else failing, an FA Cup would be fine. Arsenal has won the most FA Cups of all clubs that have competed with 14. Extending that record would be a recognizable step forward, though maybe not enough on its own given the standard that the club holds itself to.
The Carabao Cup? Laughably ironic. Just enough to be a trophy but not enough to shield Arteta from the criticism of his lack of hardware. While this would be a unique addition to the trophy cabinet, the Carabao Cup seems to really only carry weight when it’s combined with another, bigger trophy at the end of the season.
Realistically, Arsenal are still a half-step below where some of their expectations lie. Even in the best case hypothetical discussions, it seems that Arsenal are only set to win one trophy.
When similar conversations happen with the likes of Liverpool and Manchester City, a bigger part of the discourse is the number of trophies they could win throughout the season.
Meanwhile, there is still the lingering feeling that Arsenal winning the Premier League would be a bit of an over achievement, which is symbolic of the weird relationship the club has with expectation.
Going For It
One of the biggest differences that distinguishes where Arsenal are from where they want to be is the way they perform in these bigger matchups. When they come up against either another Big 6 PL team or a bigger club in Europe, there is hardly ever the feeling that Arsenal is fully expected to win.
This is because too often Arsenal will approach these fixtures with the mindset of being okay with ending in a draw, rather than pressing urgently to earn a win. This has become such a consistent problem that other clubs have identified it and used it to their advantage.
In the result against Man City on Sunday, Arsenal showed a slight improvement in their big game ambition.
The beautiful equalizer from Riccardo Calafiori in response to conceding early showed signs of their character strengthening. Likewise, the Gabriel Magalhães go-ahead goal showed how Arsenal’s investment in assistant coach Nicolas Jover has show that Arsenal can find a way to have an edge on any team they face.
Ultimately, Arsenal failed to ever really make it feel like they were actively in control of the game. They held on to their lead with good defensive structure, but City still felt a lucky bounce or two away from tying it up throughout the second half. John Stones proved that feeling to be true in the 98th minute.
The controversial Leandro Trossard red card didn’t help. In fact, it ended their best spell of the game, with many disputing whether it should have been given.
Outside of the red card discourse is the fact that Arsenal continue to put themselves into situations where they are becoming their own obstacles. The prevent themselves from evolving their own narrative, too easily allowing outside forces to affect their own progress.
Each time they get a result from these kinds of matches there is always a feeling that Arsenal got more than expected, or maybe even deserved. The connotation seems to be that whoever Arsenal was facing let the result slip rather than were outright beaten.
This Sunday still fit the bill. City dominated in nearly every aspect of the game bar one, and while that still does reflect positively on Arsenal’s ability to carve out results, the long term pattern of always having to do so puts into question their ability to rise to the next level.
The short term respite brought from results like these feels good enough until it wears off, leaving us all wondering what Arsenal really needs in order to finally make things feel different.
The Missing Piece(s)
A through line between the years of post-Wenger struggles and the successful Arteta project is Arsenal’s desperate need for a traditional, goal scoring striker. Ever since Olivier Giroud left, the Gunners haven’t really filled the role with a proper replacement.
Fans have begged for years, and while the squad now still finds goals, the lack of a finishing striker has brought frustration to Gooners over time. The concerns are valid, especially with Arsenal playing a system that is so focused on creating high quality chances in play and on set-pieces.
There is a lot to be excited about seeing players like Kai Havertz transcend the idea of a “position” and find ways to score. But Harry Kane at Bayern Munich and Erling Haaland at Manchester City show that adding a pure finisher to an already comprehensive system elevates your club to the highest level.
Arsenal has already done more than enough work building up a solid defense. They lack a consistent, high level threat up top to balance the scales, and it’s a tangible factor separating them from the top.
Another missing piece that really seems to be flying under the radar is more conceptual. Arsenal need to have better winners on the squad.
Liverpool and Manchester City have built their success, albeit with hefty financing, by creating squads with the right balance of newfound talent and proven winning experience. Arsenal has had one of the youngest squads in the last two seasons, with only Jorginho and Thomas Partey really having any past sustained success.
Raheem Sterling may bring an element of that needed experience while on loan, but Arteta will want to continue looking to bring in more on-field leaders. Having players with experience in securing trophies will be crucial when it gets to the end of the season, when Arsenal are notorious for letting their opportunities slip away.
The Bottom Line
Arsenal is getting there, but getting there is very quickly becoming not enough. The squad is showing that they can come up with the results that are needed to achieve at the highest level, in the face of some adversity.
However, they haven’t quite made themselves at home within the top of the top. There’s an entire discussion on club finances missing here, but Arsenal aren’t exactly frugal themselves.
What will get them into the conversations they want to be in is turning situations like this week of games from “escaping with points” to “never in doubt.” Unfortunately, they provide too many reason for doubt. It’s less than before, but still too much to be among the elite for now.
