Can Arsenal actually win the Premier League this year?

  • by Sebastian Oliveira
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Matchweek 19 marks the halfway point in the 2022/23 Premier League season, and Mikel Arteta still has his young Arsenal squad sitting moderately comfortable at the top of the table.

 

 

The Gunners kicked off the new year with a visibly frustrating scoreless draw, which felt more like a loss once the final whistle blew, with a Newcastle side that seems poised to qualify for Europe next season. 

 

The first 15 minutes saw Arsenal at its best, applying the relentless and rhythmic press that helped lift them to the position they now find themselves in. However, as time went on, and the scoreline continued to remain unchanged, Newcastle settled further and further into their annoying but effective tactic of doing anything they could to irritate the hosts.

 

Arsenal were thoroughly in control of most of the game, but whether it was kicking dead balls away or going down with cramps, Newcastle chipped away at their spirit just enough to keep them from finding that final finishing element. 

 

The disappointing draw, along with Manchester City’s win over Chelsea, warrants questioning if Arsenal can keep this up to the end.

 

 

Why they might

 

There’s more than enough to suggest that they deserve to be well within the conversation, and their impressive record so far this season is only the beginning. 

 

Through 17 games, the Gunners have earned 44 of a possible 51 points, largely due to complimenting their historically good track record at home with confident and winning displays on the road. This consistency is built upon a combination of factors that Arsenal have seemed to balance out just right so far. Additionally, as reported by The Athletic, teams with this many points or more at this stage of the season have gone on to win the league six out of seven times (remember this). 

 

Arsenal rank highly in the Premier League in several statistics. The most impressive of which is their claim for having the youngest squad with an average player age of 24.7 years old as of December 21. Normally the investment of youth brings the risk of inexperience, but the core of this team has amassed more than enough experience to obtain the consistent quality needed to play at this level while maintaining the hunger to achieve more. 

 

 

The cohesion between the front four of Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Martinelli, Martin Odegaard, and either Eddie Nketiah or Gabriel De Jesus is built upon the trust in each other’s creativity and the willingness to be direct, a combination that has helped grow confidence the more and more it succeeds. 

 

This change didn’t happen overnight, and credit may be due in part to the Arsenal board. Before this season Arteta displayed plenty of bright moments, but the periods of time where he would be in the hot seat were just frequent enough to keep him from achieving tangible results. Those uncertain moments have been fewer and farther between this season, which has seen Arsenal’s best start to a season ever and they don’t seem keen on looking back. 

 

 

One of the biggest changes attributing to this success so far that has held Arsenal back in the past is the consistently high level reaction and performance in high stakes and close matches. In past seasons when Arsenal would face a Chelsea or Liverpool type, there was always a point during (or even before) the match where it felt like the Gunners would be lucky to get any points at all. In situations away from home in more intimate stadiums like Brentford or Brighton, there would be a lingering notion that Arsenal were vulnerable enough to drop points. So far, they’ve stepped up in these situations consistently and have shown both the capability and the understanding of what’s needed to see this through.

 

Another obstacle preventing Arsenal from these kinds of results were goals themselves. To quote Maurice Moss (Richard Ayoade) in the IT Crowd, “the thing about Arsenal is, they always try to walk it in.” Arsenal for a while has struggled to find a consistent enough source or stream of goals to string together runs sufficient of contending for a title, or even just the Champions League. They’ve turned that around completely this year, being second in goals scored and tied second for different goal scorers throughout the league this season. So not only are the goals coming, they’re coming from everywhere, a direct antithesis to how main competition Man City have been mounting their challenge for the title.

 

Why they might not

 

As unfortunate as it is for most followers of the Premier League to admit, Man City is still Man City. Remember earlier how only one team of the seven with this many points by now has failed to win the title? That team was Liverpool, who had 45 points in 17 matches, and lost to Man City in one of the most closely contested title races ever in the 2018/2019 campaign (the one with THAT John Stones clearances).

 

 

If it’s even possible, this year’s City squad has even more depth, and its advantage was put on clear display in the latest win over Chelsea when Premier League champion Riyad Mahrez combined with $139 million dollar Jack Grealish to deliver the only goal. These massive signings continue to perform as or better than expected, with Erling Haaland delivering a record-breaking scoring season having only just signed in the summer. They’ve quickly become a monolith within the top teams of England, some weeks looking insurmountable. 

 

Recent history doesn’t bode well for the Gunners either. The last few seasons have seen the North London club lose favorable positions throughout the second half of the season, whether it be Champions League qualification, Europa League qualification, and even the fairytale title race with Leicester City in 2015/2016. 

 

These were times when Arsenal had much more experienced squads as well, so this influx of youth, while supplying energy and hunger, always runs the risk of naivete and frustration. 

 

The Newcastle result provides just a sneak peek of what that frustration could look like, and how these risks could impact their results. 

 

Arsenal didn’t even play that poorly, continuing to dominate in possession in the opponent’s half and peppering Nick Pope with 17 shots. Newcastle just stuck to a simple game plan of preventing Arsenal from establishing any semblance of control on the tempo of the game and executed it to perfection. Some would call it gamesmanship, Arsenal fans would call it referee bias. Regardless, it worked, and teams are going to take note that a trip to the Emirates Stadium doesn’t automatically mean three points for Arsenal.

 

 

The veracity of City, history of Arsenal, and risk of frustration all are conceptual to keep in mind. Logistically speaking, the most glaring and tangible obstacle staring down Arsenal is the fact that they still have two matches against Man City this season with just a five point lead on the table. They could match stride for stride with City in all other matchweeks. But if Erling Haaland decides to add to his record-breaking scoring season on February 15th and April 26th, that six point swing could deliver the Gunners the same fate of that 2018/19 Liverpool in the form of losing the title to City by a single point. 

 

 

What will happen

 

This really does seem to be leading up to one of the most entertaining title races. There are a handful subplots implicated in the process, from Haaland’s debut PL season to Arsenal cultivating a solid core foundation to leap back into the European scene. 

 

Arsenal seem a bit different this season, and inspire a confidence that they will be able to clean up their act enough to take this as close to the end as possible. But there are a lot more matches coming up where they will be facing quality teams with something big on the line, and I think that there will be just enough blights on their record for this ruthless City team to once again take advantage and turn those hefty transfer receipts into hardware. 


However, all won’t be lost for Arsenal with this result. Securing a spot back in the Champions League in this fashion leads me to believe that it will help them jump over their biggest offseason obstacle: signings. So many summers we see Arsenal get linked with almost every big name player out there. I’ve lost count of the amount of “Benzema to Arsenal” articles I’ve read thinking the goal scoring issue will finally be fixed. 

 

Many rumors would turn out to be frivolous, but even in the ones that Arsenal were truly in contention they often came out on the short end, frequently due to the lack of Champions League opportunities. Keeping up the form at this trajectory would be more than enough for Arsenal to finally land some bigger name signings and stack some of that depth needed to get back to the level they were at for so long under Arsene Wenger and before.

 

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Sebastian Oliveira